12 August 2026
The NSW Government has published the 2025 annual emissions projections on the Net Zero Emissions Dashboard, providing an update on the state's progress towards emissions reduction targets.
The projections, modelled by the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, show the state is making progress towards net zero, but further action is required to meet the 2030 and 2035 targets.
Emissions are projected to fall to 37% to 44% below 2005 levels by 2030, and 54% to 56% below 2005 levels by 2035.
The NSW Government is developing an updated Net Zero Plan 2035 to assess new policy opportunities and support progress towards the state's emissions reduction goals.
The 2025 projections draw on the latest available data, market trends, and newly announced or changed policies and programs. Further information about data sources, modelling approaches, and emissions trends in each sector is available in the NSW greenhouse gas emissions projections 2025 methods paper.
Several factors contribute to the projections. In the energy sector, limits on new wind and solar generation and rising electricity demand could increase reliance on coal-fired generation. In the transport sector, slower electric vehicle adoption, growing travel demand, and lower uptake of sustainable aviation fuel could increase emissions. Higher projected agricultural emissions reflect updated emissions data and revised assumptions about the pace of future emissions reductions.
The projections also provided the evidence base for the Net Zero Commission's 2026 Annual Progress Report, supporting independent assessment of NSW's progress towards its emissions reduction targets.
To support transparency and informed decision-making, the Net Zero Emissions Dashboard allows the public and decision-makers to explore emissions data by economic sector and local government area. Through the SEED Environmental Data Portal, users can access and visualise greenhouse gas emissions data from 1990 to 2050.
NSW is the first Australian state to publicly release greenhouse gas emissions projections, setting a national benchmark for climate data transparency.