Key points
- The ACT contains Australia’s capital city – Canberra, which is home to nearly 400,000 people. Canberra also serves as a regional hub for smaller regional cities, towns and villages in the surrounding areas of NSW. The ACT’s landscape is varied, which results in a range of climatic conditions. The average climate gets cooler and wetter the further south you go.
- Climate change is affecting the ACT region, particularly through increased temperatures. Projections show temperatures are expected to keep rising, rainfall patterns will change, there will be more hot days and heatwaves, and fire weather will increase.
- The ACT is now powered by 100% renewable energy. The ACT Government’s Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025 along with the 2024–2030 Integrated Energy Plan set the long-term pathway for the transformation of the ACT’s energy system to achieve net zero emissions by 2045. The ACT Government’s Every climate choices website has further information on climate actions that can be taken by the community, households and businesses.
- Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan: Cooling the City sets out the ACT Government’s commitment to protect and enhance nature in the city to address the urban heat island effect. It includes targets such as achieving 30% canopy cover (or equivalent) and 30% surface permeability across Canberra’s urban footprint by 2045.
The ACT region
The ACT is a self-governing territory in the south-east of Australia, containing Australia’s capital city – Canberra, which is home to nearly 400,000 people. Canberra also serves as a regional hub for smaller regional cities, towns and villages in the surrounding areas of NSW.
The ACT is surrounded by the NSW South East and Tablelands region and the Murray Murrumbidgee region.
The ACT is situated within the upper Murrumbidgee River catchment, in the Murray–Darling Basin. The total area of the ACT is about 2352km2, and around 60% of this area is hilly or mountainous. Despite the small size of the ACT, it is home to a variety of habitats including open grasslands, low open woodlands and tall wet forests. The region also contains important sub-alpine heathlands and wetlands.
The ACT employs almost 200,000 workers from the region and surrounding areas of NSW. Some of the main industries include public services, health care, defence, social assistance, education and training.
Climate change is already affecting the ACT region and its environmental, cultural and economic values. The impacts of this can be seen through the widespread bushfires of 2019–2020, which included the Orroral Valley fire that burned around 86,562 hectares.
How the ACT is affected by climate change
The ACT is getting warmer
The warmest year on record for both average temperature and maximum temperature in the ACT region was 2019, when average temperature was 1.0°C above the 1990–2009 average.
Projected warming
Across the ACT, average temperatures will continue to increase throughout this century. By 2090, average temperature is projected to rise by around 1.2°C under a low emissions scenario and around 3.7°C under a high emissions scenario.
Interpreting the projections
The projections provide a summary of plausible future climate change in the ACT relative to a baseline of average climate from 1990–2009. Unless otherwise specified, the presentation of data on this page is averaged across a 20-year period from the NARCliM model ensemble. For example, the projections for 2050 represent averaged data for 2040–2059 and projections for 2090 represent averaged data for 2080–2099. In translating the projections, it is important to consider the previous historical changes that occurred prior to 1990-2009. For example, national temperature records indicate that NSW has warmed by 0.84°C between 1910-1930 and the 1990-2009 baseline.
Detailed information on the projected climate changes for the ACT region can be found in the ACT Climate change snapshot or explored further through the interactive climate projections map.
The annual number of hot days 35°C and above is projected to increase for the ACT by 2050. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, Canberra is projected to experience more than 5 times the annual number of hot days, compared with the 1990–2009 average.
Increases are projected to occur across most of the region, with Canberra to experience the largest increases in hot days.
The annual number of cold nights below 2°C is projected to decrease for the ACT by 2050. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, cold nights are projected to reduce by more than 50% in alpine areas of Namadgi National Park and more than 70% in Canberra, compared with the 1990–2009 average.
Decreases are projected to occur across all of the region, with alpine areas of Namadgi National Park to experience greater decreases in the number of cold nights.
Average annual rainfall for the ACT is projected to slightly decrease. Seasonal rainfall will remain variable with the greatest decreases in spring. Under a high emissions scenario, average spring rainfall could decrease by around 22% across the ACT by 2090.
On average, the annual number of severe fire weather days is projected to increase for the ACT by 2050. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, the number of severe fire weather days on Canberra’s urban fringe are projected to more than triple, compared with the 1990–2009 average.
Areas of Canberra’s urban fringe is projected to experience the greatest increases, with only small increases projected for alpine areas of Namadgi National Park.
To help the ACT adapt to the impacts of climate change, the ACT Government has developed two key strategies:
The ACT Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025 has been developed alongside other key plans and strategies, including the ACT Planning Strategy 2018, ACT Housing Strategy 2018 and ACT Transport Strategy 2020.
The strategy outlines steps that the community, business and ACT Government can take to reduce emissions by 50–60% below 1990 levels by 2025. It also establishes a pathway for achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. Some of the key actions from the strategy include:
- review planning regulations and identify opportunities to require sustainable, climate-wise built environment including through developing a climate-wise code
- reflect climate change projections and risk vulnerabilities in disaster and emergency prevention, preparedness, response and recovery, particularly for extreme heat, bushfire and flash flooding
- encourage community preparedness for climate risks through targeted Emergency Services Agency outreach and the Actsmart sustainability programs
- identify opportunities to increase resilience of terrestrial and aquatic habitats at risk from climate change and implement land management changes and relevant on-ground works with delivery partners
- ensure action plans for threatened species and communities consider the impact of climate change
- encourage sustainable farming practices which are fit for the current and future climate and enhance soil and water quality, and work with farmers to identify opportunities for net zero emissions farming and innovation to increase resilience
- design, and commit to a timeframe for implementing, higher minimum energy performance and climate resilience standards for new buildings that will deliver efficient, zero emissions buildings.
Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan: Cooling the City sets the direction for maintaining and enhancing trees, soils and waterways to keep our city cool, healthy and liveable in a changing climate.
The Plan identifies fifteen actions, including measures to:
- achieve 30% tree canopy cover (or equivalent) and 30% permeable surfaces in urban areas by 2045
- develop an Urban Forest Strategy - this was released on 30 March 2021
- introduce landscape planning requirements for multi-dwelling, mixed-use and commercial developments
- support community efforts to incorporate climate-wise landscaping principles and sustainability outcomes.
More information is on the ACT Government’s website on climate change adaptation.
Across the ACT, government, industry and community are taking action to reduce emissions and manage the impacts of climate change, Examples of climate change adaptation projects in the ACT are:
- Living infrastructure at Campbell 5 Precinct
- Recycled road resurfacing materials
- Biggest rain garden in the Southern Hemisphere
- Better tree growth with soil cells and permeable pavers
- Light rail plant species trial
- Luminescent paths.
If you have an example of how a community group, business or local government is adapting to climate change, email AdaptNSW so we can share your story.