Climate change in the Central Coast

Key points

NSW’s Central Coast is known for its beautiful beaches, lakes, coastal lagoons and estuaries. The region supports a range of industries such as tourism, agriculture, health care and social assistance.
Climate change is affecting the Central Coast, particularly through increasing temperatures. Projections show temperatures are expected to keep rising, sea levels will rise, rainfall patterns will change and fire weather will increase.
The NSW Government is helping the Central Coast adapt to climate change through the Enabling Regional Adaptation work. This is being achieved by working with state and local government stakeholders to identify key aspects of the Central Coast region that are vulnerable to climate impacts, along with challenges and opportunities to adapt.

Importance of the Central Coast

The Central Coast extends from Broken Bay in the south to Frazer Beach in the north. It contains the two major town centres of Gosford and Wyong. The Central Coast’s unique environments and proximity to the Hunter and Sydney attracts people to the region to live and work.

The Central Coast includes unique natural environments such as ocean foreshore, coastal lakes, rivers, estuaries, lagoons, valleys and mountains. These features have created corridors that have shaped the region’s development. National parks, State forests, bushland, beaches and waterways occupy over half the region.

The region supports a variety of industries, including health care, retail, hospitality, education and training, construction and tourism. The region’s tourism sector is worth around $880 million annually, which makes up around 9% of the total tourism expenditure in regional NSW. The Central Coast can leverage its natural assets and proximity to Sydney to generate more jobs and economic activity from tourism.

These environmental, economic and cultural values are just some aspects of the region which have been identified as being highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is already affecting the Central Coast, particularly through increased temperatures. The impacts of this can be seen through the widespread bushfires of 2019–2020, and increased coastal erosion.

How the Central Coast is affected by climate change

The Central Coast is getting warmer

The warmest year on record for both average temperature and maximum temperature in the Central Coast region was 2019, when average temperature was 1.1°C above the 1990–2009 average.

Projected warming

Across the Central Coast, average temperatures will continue to increase throughout this century. By 2090, average temperature is projected to rise by around 1.2°C under a low emissions scenario and around 3.3°C under a high emissions scenario.

Interpreting the projections

The projections provide a summary of plausible future climate change in the Central Coast relative to a baseline of average climate from 1990–2009. Unless otherwise specified, the presentation of data on this page is averaged across a 20-year period from the NARCliM model ensemble. For example, the projections for 2050 represent averaged data for 2040–2059 and projections for 2090 represent averaged data for 2080–2099. In translating the projections, it is important to consider the previous historical changes that occurred prior to 1990-2009. For example, national temperature records indicate that NSW has warmed by 0.84°C between 1910-1930 and the 1990-2009 baseline.

Detailed information on the projected climate changes for the Central Coast can be found in the Central Coast Climate change snapshot or explored further through the interactive climate change projections map.

Hot days

The annual number of hot days 35°C and above is projected to increase for the Central Coast by 2050. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, the Central Coast is projected to experience nearly 4 times the annual number of hot days, compared with the 1990–2009 average.

Increases are projected to occur across all of the region, with slightly larger increases in areas further from the coast.

Cold nights

The annual number of cold nights below 2°C is projected to decrease for the Central Coast by 2050. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, inland areas of the Central Coast are projected to experience a greater than 95% reduction in the annual number of cold nights, compared with the 1990–2009 average. Coastal areas will experience limited changes, as they do not typically experience cold nights.

Rainfall

Annual average rainfall in the region is projected to remain variable throughout this century. On average, winter rainfall is projected to decrease by 19-30% by 2090. Inland areas are projected to experience slightly greater decreases in winter rainfall.

Severe fire weather

On average, the annual number of severe fire weather days is projected to increase for the Central Coast by 2050. By 2090, under a high emissions scenario, the number of severe fire weather days for the Central Coast is projected to more than double, with the largest increase in spring.

Sea level rise

A sea level rise of 3.7mm/year has already led to increases in inundation of streets in some NSW coastal communities.

Sea level for the Central Coast is projected to continue rising under all emissions scenarios. At Newcastle, the nearest projection to the Central Coast, sea level is projected to rise by 14–27cm under a low-emissions scenario and by 18–31cm under a high-emissions scenario by 2050. Later in the century, sea-level rise is projected to accelerate under both emissions scenarios, with significantly faster acceleration under a high-emissions scenario. Sea-level rise by 2100 is projected to be 30–62cm under a low-emissions scenario and 55–96cm under a high-emissions scenario.

These projections are relative to a baseline period of 1995–2014. For more detail on the methodology, please access the Central Coast Climate Change Snapshot.

Communities, infrastructure and natural ecosystems are expected to be increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in the future, particularly under a high‑emissions scenario. Find out more about the impacts of sea level rise.

Aboriginal cultural values

Vision

Aboriginal people lead the integration of their cultural knowledge and practice into a sustainable future for everyone. Aboriginal knowledge will be used to heal Country, increase resilience to climate change and take opportunities for land development and emerging markets.

Opportunities for action

Incorporate Aboriginal cultural knowledge into land and water management.
Increase the engagement of Aboriginal communities in landuse decision-making.
Attract and create opportunities for Aboriginal people to be employed in government.
Encourage and support cultural practice through sharing knowledge, teaching and access to land.
Listen to Aboriginal voices and facilitate self-determination in Aboriginal communities.
Support Aboriginal communities to plan for land developments and market opportunities.
Ensure development projects consider, value and protect Aboriginal heritage and cultural resourcing (e.g. effective resourcing).
Elect a local Aboriginal leadership group to advise on climate change.

Circular economy

Vision

Systems are re-designed to ensure land and resources are sustainably used and reused, to maximise efficiency and create jobs. Circular economy industries in the Central Coast are established, increasing the efficient use of limited land and natural resources.

Opportunities for action

Implement state legislation and incentives to support a circular economy, such as pricing on products and the waste levy.
Facilitate strong collaboration between government and industry to support innovation.
Encourage and support industries to adopt circular economy principles in land remediation.
Include circular economy principles in school curriculums and develop training programs to build the skills needed to increase the region’s circular economy capacity.
Embed circular economy principles and practice through government procurement.

Community resilience

Vision

The community has the capacity to prepare for, respond to and recover from natural disasters. Community resilience is achieved through diverse employment opportunities and people connected to place. The community is cohesive and self-reliant.

Opportunities for action

Embed equity, empathy and compassion as values in the community.
Support community leaders to collaborate with emergency management groups.
Embed Aboriginal values in community resilience building.
Develop and incorporate new frameworks to guide government and business on matters relating to health and wellbeing.
Promote sustainable resources through circular economy principles, community-based renewable energy projects and sustainable transport.

Emergency management

Vision

Federal, state and local government work with the community to prevent, prepare for, respond to and recover from disaster events. Communities are better prepared and more resilient with robust communication and strategic emergency management planning.

Opportunities for action

Establish a coordinated government structure that includes changes to legislation and state plans, and effective communication between government and communities.
Drive change in the culture of emergency management services to break down barriers between government and community responders.
Develop effective ways to share services across all emergency management precincts.
Develop protocols for agreed and approved datasharing and availability.
Create sustainable volunteering models through training and support.

Industry transformation

Vision

The region has sustainable and diversified food and energy sectors. The impacts of climate change on food and energy production are decreased.

Opportunities for action

Adopt tourism strategies that focus on the Central Coast’s unique local produce and ecotourism.
Implement innovative pathways to expand the region’s renewable energy capacity.
Invest in, research and develop farming practices that are sustainable for the future.
Develop education materials to encourage youth participation in new industries and community partnerships.
Invest in natural capital, circular economy, innovation and technology adoption, and renewable energy.

Planning

Vision

Planning supports community resilience by proactively embedding climate change in all decision-making. The effects of climate change, extreme weather events, population growth and changing demographics are planned for.

Opportunities for action

Integrate regional adaptation priorities into the planning process.
Fund local councils to deliver climate change adaptation resilience projects in the community.
Assess the climate vulnerability and risk regularly to inform local planning and strategy.
Implement state legislation and regulation so that councils must consider climate change during planning.
Develop objectivebased decision frameworks with adaptation options such as infrastructure improvement, appropriate construction materials, funding, property buybacks and rehousing.
Raise awareness on climate adaptation and resilience in the community.
Improve access to geospatial and landuse data and support open data sharing at a state-level to support local council decisionmaking.
Implement state legislation and regulation so that councils must consider climate change during planning.

Protection of natural systems and environments

Vision

Natural ecosystems are protected and more resilient to the impacts of climate change. Appropriate community access to natural areas is encouraged, and the importance of the environment is recognised.

Opportunities for action

Create and implement effective ecosystem management and conservation plans which consider climate change.
Develop and deliver community programs that focus on environmental stewardship and the importance of indigenous and other social and cultural ecosystem values.
Develop innovative approaches to funding and incentives to protect natural environments.
Develop and implement programs to support the migration and conservation of species that have limited ability to adapt; for example, designing and constructing wildlife refuges and corridors.

Transport and infrastructure

Vision

The Central Coast’s infrastructure effectively and efficiently moves goods, people, energy and information by rail, road, air and water, and through wired and wireless networks. The industry has reduced its carbon footprint through diversification and a transition to lowcarbon products.

Opportunities for action

Provide integrated transport and infrastructure services that incorporate climate risk and smart landuse planning.
Improve the understanding of transport system interdependencies and alternatives to help build resilience.
Create and support localised economies, multipurpose facilities and infrastructure.
Identify ways to reuse redundant infrastructure.
Support innovative risk-based approaches and proactive planning to prioritise and design sustainable transport infrastructure.

Water and water security

Vision

Water quality and availability is secure across the region. Environmental flows are protected, water harvesting is appropriately managed, and recycled water is used. The impact of climate change on water demand within the Central Coast is managed.

Opportunities for action

Review and reform the assessment process for water and infrastructure projects to align with climate risks.
Develop and deliver community education programs to increase their involvement in wateruse planning and decisionmaking.
Develop a holistic approach to collaboration across governments to support better wateruse planning and asset management.
Support and develop locallyspecific innovations that account for climate risks.
Develop solutions that are catchment based and specific for the region.

Adapting to changes in the Central Coast

To help the Central Coast adapt to the impacts of climate change, 150 state and local government stakeholders were brought together in 2019 as part of the NSW Government’s Enabling Regional Adaptation work.

These participants collaboratively identified how different economic, sociocultural and environmental aspects (also known as systems) in the region are vulnerable to climate change. For each of these systems, the vision for a climate-resilient future was identified, and opportunities for action were co-designed. These opportunities can be implemented by state and local government, businesses or community groups.

The Hunter and Central Coast Enabling Regional Adaptation report provides a resource for state and local government and regional communities to understand how climate change will continue to impact the region and our values. It also provides potential opportunities for governments, businesses and communities to adapt to climate change.

The following opportunities for action reflect potential options for state and local government, businesses or community groups to implement. This list has been summarised from the Hunter and Central Coast Enabling Regional Adaptation report. These opportunities provide a starting point for action, and will be reviewed and updated to ensure they continue to reflect climate trends, key vulnerabilities and community values.

How we’ve been adapting so far

With the knowledge and partnerships gained through the Hunter and Central Coast Enabling Regional Adaptation work, there is an opportunity for council, government and communities to show leadership and consider this work in their plans to respond to climate change.

Some opportunities for action are already being addressed by government, community, households and business, to help the Central Coast adapt to the impacts of climate change and build a sustainable, productive and equitable future.

One example of action being taken is Lake Macquarie City Council’s Community monitoring and foreshore inundation project. This project explored risks to foreshore infrastructure, such as roads, communication lines, and drainage systems from inundation by engaging the community in the monitoring and assessment of tidal flap effectiveness.

Other examples include the projects supported by the Building Resilience to Climate Change grants and Increasing Resilience to Climate Change grants.

The Enabling Regional Adaptation work has already been used to inform government planning in the Hunter through the Central Coast Regional Plan 2041. Incorporating this work into regional and state plans ensures climate change risks specific to the Central Coast are included.

If you have an example of how a community group, business or local government is adapting to climate change, email AdaptNSW so we can share your story.