New evidence from the IPCC to help NSW adapt to climate risks

^{Marine life passing through Cabbage Bay Aquatic Reserve, Manly. Credit: Destination NSW}

Marine risk

Ocean temperatures are increasing and impacting important NSW marine ecosystems such as kelp forests. Changes in these ecosystems have flow-on effects to culturally and commercially important marine species, as well as coastal communities, cultures, industries and environments.

Marine action

In response to this risk, the NSW Marine Estate Management Strategy 2018–2028 considers the impacts of climate change on NSW’s marine and coastal areas, to help both the environment and people adapt to future changes. Many NSW coastal councils and communities are taking action to build the resilience of their local marine ecosystems. For example, the Living Seawalls project by the Sydney Institute of Marine Science supports biodiversity to increase the resilience of marine environments.

^{Scenic aerial overlooking the alpine backcountry in Kosciuszko National Park. Credit: Destination NSW}

Alpine risk

In alpine areas, warming temperatures are causing less snowfall. Further declines are expected as our climate continues to warm. This will have stronger impacts on NSW’s alpine areas and the unique alpine plants, animals and industries that depend on snow.

Alpine action

To help alpine areas adapt to these changes, the NSW Government invests in research and climate projections to understand how climate change impacts on alpine areas. The government also develops adaptation strategies that consider climate change in future planning, to help alpine tourism industries adapt to shorter snow seasons and expand their offering of year-round recreational activities. For example, the Snowy Mountains Special Activation Precinct involves the Department of Planning and Environment working with the Department of Regional NSW to develop a 40-year master plan for the Snowy Mountains precinct. The purpose of the master plan is to expand the precinct from a one-season visitor economy to a year-round destination – this will increase investment and jobs in the area, and help the Snowy Mountains precinct be more prepared for, and resilient to, climate change.

^{Small fire burning in a national park that shows smoke, fire and trees. Credit: Michele Cooper/DPIE}

Vegetation risk

The distribution of vegetation across NSW is expected to change in response to climate change. Species with restricted habitats, such as alpine ash and snow gum woodlands, are at greater risk from rising temperatures, drier conditions, and increased fire weather. Changes in the distribution of vegetation species impacts entire ecosystems, as well as the industries and people that depend on them.

Vegetation action

Adaptation actions to help protect vegetation include reducing non-climate pressures such as land clearing. New fire management practices can also help, including preparing for fire seasons based on the latest climate projections. The NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub brings together researchers, fire agencies, public land managers and Indigenous knowledge holders to build our understanding of bushfire behaviour and risk under a changing climate.

To support the preservation of biodiversity under a changing climate, a collection of online tools is available for natural resource managers to help guide revegetation activities that consider the uncertainties of climate change. The Climate-ready revegetation guide offers resource managers step-by-step instructions on where to find and how to use climate projections, and how to consider the suitability of species and appropriate habitat (or provenances) for revegetation projects.

^{Stormy weather, beach erosion. Collaroy Beach located on Sydney's northern beaches is typical of developed coastlines. Changes in wave patterns and rising sea levels affect beach erosion during storms. Credit: Joanna Munnelly/DPE}

Coastal risk

NSW coastal communities and industries are experiencing the impacts of sea level rise, including coastal erosion, storm surge, and flooding of low‑lying coastal areas. Sea levels are projected to keep rising – by 2100, the sea level is expected to increase by more than 1 metre in parts of NSW (depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions).

Coastal action

Adapting to these changes includes reviewing planning processes and land uses to consider future sea levels, and improving coastal building and infrastructure designs so they can withstand future impacts. For example, the Northern Beaches Council is adapting to sea level rise by creating and using a tool to help upgrade and develop coastal infrastructure.

^{Winemaker Sam Brewer tending to the harvested grapes at Yarran Wines, Yenda just east of Griffith. Credit: Destination NSW}

Agricultural risk

One of NSW’s largest industries – agriculture – is highly vulnerable to climate change. Warming temperatures and drier conditions are expected to cause a decline in crops, horticulture and dairy. NSW has already experienced the impacts of bushfire smoke on wine-grape growing, and the impacts of severe drought on crops and livestock. These impacts have flow-on effects to supply chains, farm businesses and rural communities.

Agricultural action

NSW agriculture industries and rural communities are adapting to these changes by using climate‑smart technologies and diversifying their agricultural practices (such as switching to drought-tolerant crops or changing the way they use their land). The Climate Resilience Podcast series shares stories from regional NSW communities to support adaptation to drier conditions.

As part of the NSW Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020–2030, the Primary Industries Productivity and Abatement Program supports farmers and land managers across the state to engage in regenerative land management practices. These practices have benefits for both land managers and ecosystems, such as capturing and storing carbon from the atmosphere to help limit further climate change; supporting ecosystem function to strengthen the resilience of the land; and supplementing income from production with credits earned through environmental markets. Together this helps to build the resilience of the land, the agricultural enterprise and regional communities.

^{Park Air 3 working on the Woronora SFAZ Hazard Reduction burn in Heathcote National Park. Credit: David Croft/DPE}

Fire risk

Fire weather risk across Australia has already increased since 1950, especially in south-eastern Australia. Climate projections show this risk is expected to increase further in some locations.

Fire action

Adapting to increased fire risks includes actions to reduce fire risk and help communities understand and prepare for fire events. For example, Ku-ring-gai Council is helping its residents prepare for bushfire events by using computer-based simulations to show how far and fast bushfires can travel in their local area.

^{Rising sun over NSW. Credit: DPE}

Heatwave risk

In Australia, heatwaves are responsible for more human deaths than any other natural disaster. Extreme heat also affects workplace productivity, infrastructure and services (such as power supplies), and wildlife.

Heatwave action

Actions are already underway to help NSW communities and environments adapt to heat risks, such as increasing vegetation in urban areas to reduce heat. Through the Increasing Resilience to Climate Change grants, the NSW Government has helped councils and community groups adapt to heat. Several of these council projects were highlighted in the AdaptNSW webinar Adaptation in action: heat risks and opportunities in your local government area (held in December 2021), including Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils (WSROC)’s Urban heat planning toolkit. Community projects have also included heat management resources developed by Beyond Zero Emissions and Link Wentworth.