Climate-adapted ocean management

This step involves analysing the information you’ve gathered to gain a deeper understanding of how climate risks affect the ocean's values. You’ll refine your findings with your stakeholders to validate your approach and build support for adaptation. 

What this stage typically involves 

• Selecting and documenting your analysis approach, including risk assessment, decision-making, and tools and methods used. The size of your analysis will depend on the context and scale of your work.
• Refining and prioritising the list of values that the ocean area supports and their sensitivity to climate change. This will help you prioritise your management actions later. When determining the relative importance of each value, consider stakeholder insights alongside the management initiatives outlined in the Fisheries Management Act 1994, Marine Estate Management Strategy, Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016 and the principles of the Climate Change (Net Zero Future) Act 2023.
• Understanding the current condition (baseline) of the area so you can measure change and track your progress. To find the baseline, review the sources of condition data you identified in the previous step. Your baseline dataset could cover parameters such as water temperature, turbidity, fisheries catches, and distribution and spread of marine species.
• Analysing past, current and projected climate trends and events. This is informed by the climate records and projections you’ve identified and considers the role of the ocean's current condition in the resulting climate impacts. For example, the same climate event will likely have a greater impact on a degraded marine ecosystem, than on a healthy one. To help understand impacts, you can review existing risk assessments and the NSW statewide threat and risk assessment, and the Changing Oceans: Science and Synthesis report, which provides a synthesis of observed and projected climate-driven changes in NSW marine waters and their implications for marine ecosystems and industries
• Setting a climate-appropriate future condition of the ocean area. This involves focusing on the ocean's values rather than on its specific characteristics. For example, if a local fish species cannot tolerate warmer ocean temperatures, then it may not be feasible to maintain its current distribution. Effective solutions might include protecting marine environments in cooler areas for the species to migrate to.
• Selecting condition indicators that reflect the key values you want to protect. These indicators will help you track your progress towards your climate-appropriate goal. For example, you might track water temperature and numbers and distribution of fish species to see if the population is maintained beyond your ocean area if temperatures become too warm.
• Ranking your list of climate risks based on their likelihood, severity, timing and consequences for values. To do this, you might use a first-pass risk assessment procedure and generic risk assessment matrix, a threat matrix, or a cost–benefit analysis. Taking a Country-first perspective and talking with local Aboriginal groups and stakeholders can help you understand the direct and indirect impacts that climate risks may have on all aspects of social, cultural, ecological and economic values. 

This step involves assigning adaptation actions to the climate risks you prioritised in the previous step. You’ll identify actions that offer the best protection for the ocean’s values within your scope and context, and make a plan for implementation. 

What this stage typically involves 

• Considering whether a value can be protected or restored in place, and where transformation, planned relocation, documentation of cultural and social assets, or acceptance of change may be required.
• Exploring potential adaptation actions by reviewing current literature around climate-adapted ocean management, consulting with Traditional Custodians, and visiting well-managed areas. Useful guidance can be found in the NSW Marine Estate Management Strategy 2018–2028, the National Marine Science Plan, CSIRO’s Adaptation of fisheries management to climate change handbook, and reports and articles such as Restore or redefine: Future trajectories for restoration, marine protected areas and climate adaptation planning, The emerging need for marine heatwave response plans: A globally relevant example from New South Wales, Australia, and Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning.
• Choosing and prioritising actions based on their effectiveness, feasibility, alignment with values and cost of implementation, and your available resources and relevant policy or legislative settings. Depending on your context, you might identify actions such as
  • translocation programs for species highly susceptible to marine heatwave impacts
  • biobanking through to support research and future-proof kelp forests
  • increased monitoring of crown-of-thorns starfish to support quicker responses to its increasing range
  • assisted adaptation to prepare restored habitats and species for future ocean conditions.
• Developing a timeline for implementation. Using a pathways approach helps to schedule actions based on urgency, importance, and any triggers for implementation (for example, when a certain threshold is reached).
• Securing support for implementation in the form of funding, collaboration and equipment. Think about what you’ll need, and how you can source it, for example, access to experimental and research facilities to understand the responses of certain species to changes in ocean temperatures and acidification.
• Building adaptation actions into routine ocean management practices, with a focus on flexibility to alter actions as climate change continues to unfold. 

Regular monitoring will help you track your progress and or the reporting requirements of supporting grants or government programs. 

Depending on the area's values and risks and the actions you’ve chosen, you’ll likely need a combination of different monitoring methods. 

What this stage typically involves 

• Choosing appropriate monitoring techniques for your context. These could include water sampling, marine life surveys, and seabed mapping. Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) can help detect early and subtle signs of changing condition – incorporate TEK in your monitoring regime through respectful collaboration with Aboriginal groups and knowledge holders.
• Planning a monitoring regime that suits the values, risks, goals and actions of your adaptation plan. This will support regular data collection to measure changes in the ocean’s condition (compared with the baseline). For long-term monitoring plans, you may need to increase the frequency of monitoring activities as the climate continues to change.
• Monitoring your identified indicators, along with climate events.
• Reviewing the performance of your actions relative to the baseline and desired future condition and adjusting your approach, actions and priorities according to monitoring data.
• Meeting reporting requirements of relevant programs and policies. 

Our knowledge of climate-adapted ocean management is still growing. Your experiences can inform and inspire other ocean managers to incorporate values-based adaptation into their own planning, warn them about potential pitfalls, and provide valuable information to help them make the right decisions for their site. 

What this stage typically involves 

• Sharing success stories that acknowledge the contributions of stakeholders. This includes publishing stories jointly with collaborators, and following cultural safety protocols to ensure that traditional knowledge is shared appropriately.
• Encouraging project participants and stakeholders to champion their own successes and contributions to the project.
• Sharing your lessons (successes and challenges) through conferences and events such as national roundtables (sea turtles, marine mammals, penguins), the NSW Coastal Conference, the Australian coastal conference and the Australian Marine Science Conference.
• Sharing your monitoring data through platforms such as SEED, Reef Adapt, Bionet and the NSW Modelling and Monitoring Hub
• Connecting with networks of researchers and practitioners such as Green Gravel Action Group.
• Sharing stories through social media, newsletters (such as the NSW Marine Estate and the Great Southern Reef Foundation newsletter), industry events and AdaptNSW case studies.