Key points
- The Illawarra region has thriving industries including hospitality, tourism, education, manufacturing, agriculture, fisheries and international shipping trade.
- Climate change is affecting the Illawarra region, particularly through increasing temperatures. Projections show temperatures are expected to keep rising, sea levels will rise, rainfall patterns will change and fire weather will increase.
- The NSW Government is helping the Illawarra region adapt to climate change through the Enabling Regional Adaptation work. This is being achieved by working with state and local government stakeholders to identify key aspects of the Illawarra region that are vulnerable to climate impacts, along with challenges and opportunities to adapt.
Importance of the Illawarra region
The Illawarra region covers an area of 7,000 km2 south of Sydney. It is home to regional cities, commercial hubs and settlements, including Wollongong, Nowra, Kiama, Jamberoo, Hyams Beach and Calderwood.
The region contains unique natural features. The coastline stretches 200 km from the Royal National Park south of Sydney, down to Durras Lake. The Illawarra Range escarpment is 120 km long and separates the coastal plains in the east from the rolling hills of the Southern Tablelands in the west. The geography of the area affects local weather conditions, which together have led to a range of unique and important ecosystems.
The Illawarra region is a popular destination for tourists, offering many natural attractions, particularly around the Shoalhaven River and Jervis Bay. The region has strong heritage values including Aboriginal culture, timber cutting, mining and farming. This history lives on today, with many important cultural locations across the region, and thriving industries including the steelworks, construction, manufacturing, hospitality, tourism, education, fisheries agriculture, international trade and steel production.
These environmental, economic and cultural values are just some aspects of the region which have been identified as being highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is already affecting the Illawarra region. The impacts of this can be seen through the widespread bushfires of 2019–2020 and the floods that followed across the region.
How the Illawarra region is affected by climate change
The Illawarra is getting warmer
The warmest years on record for both average temperature and maximum temperature in the Illawarra Shoalhaven region were 2016 and 2019, when average temperature was 0.9°C above the 1990–2009 average.
The projections
Across the Illawarra Shoalhaven, average temperatures will continue to increase throughout this century. By 2090, average temperature is projected to rise by around 1.1°C under a low emissions scenario and around 3.3°C under a high emissions scenario.
Interpreting the projections
The projections provide a summary of plausible future climate change in the Illawarra Shoalhaven relative to a baseline of average climate from 1990–2009. Unless otherwise specified, the presentation of data on this page is averaged across a 20-year period from the NARCliM model ensemble. For example, the projections for 2050 represent averaged data for 2040–2059 and projections for 2090 represent averaged data for 2080–2099. In translating the projections, it is important to consider the previous historical changes that occurred prior to 1990-2009. For example, national temperature records indicate that NSW has warmed by 0.84°C between 1910-1930 and the 1990-2009 baseline.
Detailed information on the projected climate changes for the Illawarra Shoalhaven can be found in the Illawarra Shoalhaven climate change snapshot or explored further through the interactive climate projections map.
The annual number of hot days 35°C and above is projected to increase for the Illawarra Shoalhaven by 2050. By 2090, under a high emissions scenario, the annual number of hot days for the Illawarra Shoalhaven is projected to more than triple, compared with the 1990–2009 average.
Increases in hot days are projected to occur across the region, with inland areas of the region such as Nowra and Morton National Park to experience the greatest increases.
The annual number of cold nights below 2°C is projected to decrease for the Illawarra Shoalhaven by 2050. By 2090, under a high emissions scenario, the annual number of cold nights for the region is projected to reduce by more than 80%, compared with the 1990–2009 average.
Coastal areas are projected to experience limited changes, as they do not typically experience cold nights. The greatest decreases occur in higher elevation areas of the region.
Annual average rainfall in the region is projected to remain variable throughout this century. On average, winter rainfall is projected to decrease by 21- 35% by 2090.
On average, the annual number of severe fire weather days is projected to increase for the Illawarra Shoalhaven. By 2090, under a high emissions scenario, the annual number of severe fire weather days are projected to triple for the region, with the largest increase in spring.
Increases are projected to occur across most of the region, with larger increases in inland areas of the region such as Nowra and Morton National Park.
A sea level rise of 3.7mm/year has already led to increases in inundation of streets in some NSW coastal communities.
Sea level for the Illawarra Shoalhaven is projected to continue rising under all emissions scenarios. At Port Kembla, sea level is projected to rise by 11–24cm under a low-emissions scenario and by 16–28cm under a high-emissions scenario by 2050. Later in the century, sea-level rise is projected to accelerate under both emissions scenarios, with significantly faster acceleration under a high-emissions scenario. Sea-level rise by 2100 is projected to be 24–56cm under a low-emissions scenario and 50–91cm under a high-emissions scenario.
These projections are relative to a baseline period of 1995–2014. For more detail on the methodology, please access the Illawarra Shoalhaven Climate Change Snapshot.
Communities, infrastructure and natural ecosystems are expected to be increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in the future, particularly under a high‑emissions scenario. Find out more about the impacts of sea level rise.
Adapting to changes in the Illawarra region
To help the Illawarra region adapt to the impacts of climate change, over 60 state and local government stakeholders were brought together in 2017 as part of the NSW Government’s Enabling Regional Adaptation work.
These participants collaboratively identified how different economic, sociocultural and environmental aspects (also known as systems) in the region are vulnerable to climate change. For each of these systems, the vision for a climate-resilient future was identified, and opportunities for action were co-designed. These opportunities can be implemented by state and local government, businesses or community groups.
The Shoalhaven and Illawarra region Enabling Regional Adaptation report provides a resource for state and local government and regional communities to understand how climate change will continue to impact the region and our values. It also provides potential opportunities for governments, businesses and communities to adapt to climate change.
The following opportunities for action reflect potential options for state and local government, businesses or community groups to implement. This list has been summarised from the Shoalhaven and Illawarra Enabling Regional Adaptation report. These opportunities provide a starting point for action, and will be reviewed and updated to ensure they continue to reflect climate trends, key vulnerabilities and community values.
Vision
Communities in isolated satellite settlements, such as Jamberoo, Hyams Beach and Calderwood are less vulnerable to extreme climate events, by having a sustainable built environment, integrated transport options and diversified employment. These communities are highly responsive and resilient to natural disasters and supported by access to real-time emergency service information. Communities are supported to value and protect their environmental, social and economic assets.
Opportunities for action
- Create and support community-driven solutions that promote resilience in social infrastructure, food, water, energy and transport.
- Encourage improved planning, design and development that is resilient, maximises natural capital and preserves biodiversity.
- Develop new business models for small to medium enterprises and local services to match seasonal tourism demand.
- Introduce improved public transport options such as cooperatives and autonomous vehicles to support an ageing population.
Vision
The transport system supports the socio-economic development of local communities and tourist destinations by using and improving access to a central rail network and alternative transport options. Effective planning and access reduce the need to travel for work. The transport system is sustainable and creates new styles of employment with reduced carbon emissions.
Opportunities for action
- Develop ‘live-work-play’ villages through improved land-use planning to reduce the need for long-distance commuting.
- Improve coordination of transport options to well-serviced hubs, for example by providing adequatecapacity trains, parking options and communal vehicles.
- Identify and explore options to strengthen critical transport pathways and include new urban development in forward planning for transport.
- Develop innovative technologies to reduce transport emissions.
- Promote and support alternative transport options such as autonomous bus services, Albion Park air services and local sea transport.
Vision
The water system supports and secures water for human use, biodiversity, recreational activities and industries. Water infrastructure is resilient and meets future demands in the region. The stormwater system integrates water re-use by industry, and the system is equipped to deal with extreme climate events.
Opportunities for action
- Create incentives for water sensitive urban design and to manage demand, to improve the efficiency of the water system and reduce the need for future changes.
- Create plans for the protection, relocation and renewal of sewer and stormwater infrastructure to suit changing climate conditions.
- Improve weather predictions, monitoring and communication to support early responses to extreme weather events.
- Promote and support the use of green infrastructure as an alternative to hard engineered systems.
Vision
The region’s industry is competitive, underpinned by advanced manufacturing and local knowledge services, and employs a local, skilled workforce. Port Kembla is the centre of a vibrant marine tourism sector and is a major international hub for commodities and containers supported by road and rail infrastructure that is resilient to climate impacts. The region’s industry and port are viable over the long term.
Opportunities for action
- Develop and prove a business case for improved rail infrastructure to improve freight and passenger access to the port.
- Work with industry to develop strategies for net zero emissions, reduced energy costs and access to energy demand management revenue.
- Develop and implement a strategy for marine tourism in the region.
- Develop formal training to build the skills base needed for industrial transformation.
Vision
The energy system has transitioned successfully from its current centralised system to a system where energy is reliable, sustainable and resilient to climate change impacts. Energy is supplied through a super-intelligent grid to communities in an equitable way.
Opportunities for action
- Establish community renewable energy and battery storage (domestic and regional) to meet peak energy demand.
- Incorporate BASIX+ into early planning and development control plans for new subdivisions.
- Establish an energy dashboard for local government, showing joint bulk buying, community and household renewable energy levels and joint council energy generation.
- Encourage and invest in research and development of innovative energy solutions.
Vision
Local food production, agriculture and food businesses are supported to provide access to healthy, nutritious food produced with a small ecological footprint.The food system supports local production through the protection of agricultural lands, environmental values and planning policies. Local economies diversify through food and farm tourism enterprises, and support for agriculture increases through an active social enterprise supported by government.
Opportunities for action
- Implement land-use planning mechanisms to protect food security, ecosystem services, productive agricultural land and livelihoods.
- Support local food businesses through education, pilot programs, partnerships and promotion of local food production.
- Support climate-adapted food production by matching agriculture practices with land capability.
- Develop new technologies and training options to increase the region’s food industry and related employment.
- Encourage and support policies and incentives to increase efficiency in water, energy, nutrients and waste in the food system.
Vision
The emergency management system protects communities by identifying risks, ensuring emergency service access, and supporting preparation and self-reliance. The system also protects communities by limiting development in at-risk locations and helps communities to be prepared for extreme events by providing access to realtime, trustworthy information to enable better decisionmaking. The vital workforce of volunteers is secured through recognition and incentives, and government funding is adequate for disaster prevention and renewal of infrastructure after a disaster.
Opportunities for action
- Develop and support programs that build community disaster resilience to reduce reliance on emergency services.
- Develop a new funding model supported by economic analysis that prioritises investment in mitigation (90%) over recovery (10%).
- Promote open and transparent decision-making that is consistent with formal emergency management arrangements.
- Create plans for recovery that consider the full costs of disaster clean-up.
- Review community planning and policies to ensure currency and consistency of advice across hazards and infrastructure types.
How we’ve been adapting so far
With the knowledge and partnerships gained through the Shoalhaven and Illawarra Enabling Regional Adaptation work, there is an opportunity for council, government and communities to show leadership and consider the Enabling Regional Adaptation outcomes in their plans to respond to climate change.
Some opportunities for action are already being addressed by government, community, households and business, to help the Illawarra region adapt to the impacts of climate change and build a sustainable, productive and equitable future.
One example of action being taken is the Greening Jerry Bailey Oval for the future project by the Lions Club of Shoalhaven Heads Inc. This project involves planting established native trees and installing water-efficient systems to provide naturally cooled outdoor areas for the community.
Other examples include the projects supported by the Building Resilience to Climate Change grants and Increasing Resilience to Climate Change grants.
The Enabling Regional Adaptation work has already been used to inform government planning in the Illawarra through the Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan 2041. Incorporating this work into regional and state plans ensures climate change risks specific to the Illawarra region are included.
If you have an example of how a community group, business of local government is adapting to climate change, email AdaptNSW so we can share your story.
Case studies
Ensuring there’s enough water in the moat may not be a common challenge for those preparing for changing climate conditions.
The role of the Greater Cities Commission (GCC) is to coordinate and align the planning that will shape the future of the Six Cities Region. The GCC are using a tool that applies NARCliM regional climate projections to assess the socioeconomic risks of climate change for the region.
Lake Macquarie City Council is trialling tidal gates to protect low-lying assets from tidal inundation, storm surges and extreme weather events.